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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | BOOM | N/A |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (Elite ceiling (27 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
No urgent adds needed. Playoffs Week 16-17 approaching. Hold high-ceiling players. Hampton return is encouraging for playoff push.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 14 is a VICTORY with our team leading 115.7-75.6 against Meat Pistols. All starters are locked with Jameson Williams FLEX (17.3 pts Thursday) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 (28.1 pts Sunday) leading the charge. Jacoby Brissett and Jason Myers both exceeded projections. Hampton returns from IR for MNF tonight but is on the bench and cannot affect this matchup.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | ✓ 19.0 | 15.3 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | ✓ 16.1 | 16.4 | 16.0 | +0.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | ✓ 11.5 | 12.1 | 8.0 | +3.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | ✓ 28.1 | 20.9 | 22.0 | +6.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 7.4 | 17.1 | 17.0 | -9.6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | ✓ 7.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | -2.2 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 17.3 | 13.8 | 17.3 | 0.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | ✓ 14.0 | 8.3 | 10.0 | +4.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 6.0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | -3.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 19.3 | 17.6 | 18.0 | +1.3 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 11.0 | 10.3 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 6.7 | 8.6 | 8.0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | ✓ 6.3 | 17.9 | 20.1 | -11.6 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | ✓ 0.3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | -5.0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | ✓ 7.7 | 3.2 | 7.8 | +4.5 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | ✓ 3.6 | 6.7 | 9.2 | -3.1 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | ✓ 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | -4.4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | ✓ 14.1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | +4.1 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 0.6 | 12.8 | 11.9 | -12.2 |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 24.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | +15.1 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | ✓ 15.0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | +9.8 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 7.9 | --- | +1.1 |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 20.4 | 14.7 | --- | +5.7 |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | ✓ 3.0 | 3.7 | --- | -0.7 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 29.5% boom agrees. BUT cold weather (20F) + snow concerns for passing. CHI #8 vs QB. Selecting MODERATE. 18.0 within MOD [9.1-24.1]. Bench behind Brissett's hot streak.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 8 | ECR: 10
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 19.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM[18-26]@22. XGB: 22.5% boom, 34.6% bust - DISAGREES (predicts bust). LLM trusts MC due to Brissett's 5-game hot streak (18+ each). LAR mid-tier defense. High game total (47.5). Mode: BOOM. 19.0 within BOOM [18-26].
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 17
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 22% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 22% BOOM[17-28], 61% MOD[8-20]. XGB: 9.8% boom, 52.9% bust - HIGH BUST risk. TB 8.5pt favorite = positive game script. But TB #5 vs RB is tough. Selecting MODERATE. 16.0 within MOD [8-20].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 5 | ECR: 9
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 17.5 | 25.5 | ? | +8.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 17.9 | 13.9 | ? | -4.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 15.9 | 18.1 | ? | +2.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 17.3 | 14.5 | ? | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 61% MOD[4-14]. XGB: 13.7% boom, 39% bust. Lowest game total (33.5) in NFL. CLE #9 vs RB. Cold weather. ECR #45. Selecting MODERATE but low-end. 8.0 within MOD [4-14].
Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 9 | ECR: 45
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 31% BOOM [15-30], 40% MODERATE [5-17], 29% BUST [0-8]. XGB: 11.3% boom, 55.5% bust - STRONG BUST SIGNAL. First game back from 2-month ankle injury, timeshare with Vidal expected. PHI run D has been vulnerable but LAC O-line is worst in NFL. Game script uncertain (game total 42.5, close spread). Conservative projection at low-MODERATE. 8.0 within MODERATE [5-17].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: Unk
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM[18.7-31.3], 49% BUST[-3.8-8.2]. XGB: 15% boom, 49% bust. Handcuff role unclear with AJ Dillon. CHI 17th vs RB. Low floor, unpredictable usage. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 17 | ECR: 95
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: Singletary not playing - NYG inactive/limited role.
MC (Historical): BUST: 60% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM[22-36], 43% MOD[12-26]. XGB: 11.6% boom, 24.5% bust - moderate. ATL #15 vs WR (average). ECR WR2 = elite consensus. Selecting high MODERATE. 22.0 within MOD [12-26].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 2
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 21.3 | 37.1 | ? | +15.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 23.0 | 20.6 | ? | -2.4 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 22.0 | 20.3 | ? | -1.7 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 24.5 | 22.0 | ? | -2.5 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 20.0 | 26.3 | ? | +6.3 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 17.9 | 30.2 | ? | +12.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 15.9 | 27.2 | ? | +11.3 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 16.4 | 13.0 | ? | -3.4 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 15.5 | 20.6 | ? | +5.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.4 | 18.3 | ? | +3.9 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.7 | 19.4 | ? | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: Carolina Panthers on bye Week 14
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: Ruled OUT with heel injury per ESPN/CBS Sports.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% BOOM[18-30], 29% MOD[10-20]. XGB: 27.2% boom, 36.6% bust - split. Cold + windy (16mph) concerns. HOU defense average. ECR WR5. Selecting MODERATE due to weather. 17.0 within MOD [10-20].
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 5
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%
XGB (This Week): Boom 31% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.6 | 24.1 | ? | +6.5 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.4 | 9.8 | ? | -6.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.4 | 18.6 | ? | +0.2 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.2 | 25.5 | ? | +8.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.7 | 23.2 | ? | +9.5 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.8 | LLM 17.3 (BOOM)
Reasoning: Thursday game COMPLETE: 17.3 pts actual (52-yd TD at Dallas). Above ESPN proj of 13.8.
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[0-14]. XGB: 11.0% boom, 53.1% bust - AGREES on bust. PHI #6 vs WR is tough. Herbert hand injury. ECR WR28 (low). Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST [0-14].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 6 | ECR: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.5 | 3.9 | ? | -8.6 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 14.0 | 6.1 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 16.0 | 8.4 | ? | -7.6 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.5 | 28.9 | ? | +15.4 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 16.3 | 6.7 | ? | -9.6 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.6 | 10.8 | ? | -3.8 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 13.6 | 8.7 | ? | -4.9 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.4 | 19.5 | ? | +6.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 12.9 | 17.1 | ? | +4.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 11.0 | 19.8 | ? | +8.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 52% moderate [3-13], 34% bust. CHI struggling offense, benched for better options.
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 49% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 36% BOOM[11-19], 35% MOD[5-13]. XGB: 25.7% boom, 28.2% bust - balanced. NO big underdog = passing likely. TB average vs TE. Selecting MODERATE. 10.0 at top of MOD [5-13].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 28% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.3 | 10.6 | ? | +1.3 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 8.9 | 19.2 | ? | +10.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 8.3 | 12.1 | ? | +3.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: New England Patriots on bye Week 14
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 18.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 24% BOOM[17.6-35.6], 47% MOD[9.1-24.1]. XGB: 29.5% boom agrees. BUT cold weather (20F) + snow concerns for passing. CHI #8 vs QB. Selecting MODERATE. 18.0 within MOD [9.1-24.1]. Bench behind Brissett's hot streak.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%
Notes: Carolina Panthers on bye Week 14
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%
Notes: Ruled OUT with heel injury per ESPN/CBS Sports.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%
Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 61% MOD[4-14]. XGB: 13.7% boom, 39% bust. Lowest game total (33.5) in NFL. CLE #9 vs RB. Cold weather. ECR #45. Selecting MODERATE but low-end. 8.0 within MOD [4-14].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 55%
Notes: MC: 31% BOOM [15-30], 40% MODERATE [5-17], 29% BUST [0-8]. XGB: 11.3% boom, 55.5% bust - STRONG BUST SIGNAL. First game back from 2-month ankle injury, timeshare with Vidal expected. PHI run D has been vulnerable but LAC O-line is worst in NFL. Game script uncertain (game total 42.5, close spread). Conservative projection at low-MODERATE. 8.0 within MODERATE [5-17].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 51%
Notes: MC: 11% BOOM[18.7-31.3], 49% BUST[-3.8-8.2]. XGB: 15% boom, 49% bust. Handcuff role unclear with AJ Dillon. CHI 17th vs RB. Low floor, unpredictable usage. Selecting BUST. 6.0 within BUST range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 53%
Notes: MC: 11% BOOM, 63% BUST[0-14]. XGB: 11.0% boom, 53.1% bust - AGREES on bust. PHI #6 vs WR is tough. Herbert hand injury. ECR WR28 (low). Selecting BUST. 8.0 within BUST [0-14].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.5 | 3.9 | ? | -8.6 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 14.0 | 6.1 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 16.0 | 8.4 | ? | -7.6 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.5 | 28.9 | ? | +15.4 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 16.3 | 6.7 | ? | -9.6 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.6 | 10.8 | ? | -3.8 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 13.6 | 8.7 | ? | -4.9 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.4 | 19.5 | ? | +6.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 12.9 | 17.1 | ? | +4.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 11.0 | 19.8 | ? | +8.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: New England Patriots on bye Week 14
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 60% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%
Notes: Singletary not playing - NYG inactive/limited role.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 10.3 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 49%
Notes: MC: 52% moderate [3-13], 34% bust. CHI struggling offense, benched for better options.
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 | MODERATE | 48% | 37% | 16% | HIGH | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 | MODERATE | 27% | 46% | 27% | MEDIUM | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 9.1 | 11.9 | MODERATE | 23% | 52% | 25% | MEDIUM | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 | MODERATE | 15% | 55% | 30% | LOW | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 13% | 36% | 51% | LOW | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 | BUST | 12% | 34% | 54% | LOW | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | MODERATE | 12% | 42% | 46% | LOW | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 | BUST | 11% | 27% | 62% | LOW | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 8.9 | 8.9 | BUST | 11% | 26% | 63% | LOW | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 | BUST | 10% | 34% | 57% | LOW |
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)
Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 11.8 | 50% | 19% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.0 | 33% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 9.3 | 32% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 8.7 | 28% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.2 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.9 | 27% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 6.0 | 26% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 7.3 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.1 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 15.3 | 19% | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.6 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Evan McPherson | K | 8.3 | 17% | 53% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15.3 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 19% | 50% | |
| Kyler Murray | 17.1 | BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 14% | 49% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 13% | 41% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11.8 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% | 50% | 19% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 33% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.9 | BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% | 27% | 26% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.1 | BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% | 21% | 37% | |
| Devin Neal | 8.9 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 47% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.8 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% | 14% | 49% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 9% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.2 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.6 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.4 | BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% | 12% | 58% | |
| Keenan Allen | 12.6 | BUST:63%, MODERATE:26%, BOOM:11% | 11% | 53% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 9.1 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:26% | 10% | 58% | |
| Tre Tucker | 10.1 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% | 9% | 42% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.6 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9.3 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% | 32% | 22% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8.7 | BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% | 28% | 26% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.2 | BUST:44%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:18% | 8% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.0 | 33% | 42% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | |
| Evan McPherson | 8.3 | 17% | 53% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 6.0 | 26% | 31% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 7.3 | 22% | 43% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 44.3% | 34.7% | 21.1% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | --- | 0.0 | OUT | 36.7% | 43.8% | 19.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 31.4% | 36.4% | 32.2% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 29.5% | 48.1% | 22.4% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 25.4% | 46.7% | 27.9% |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 19.0 | BOOM | 22.2% | 44.3% | 33.5% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 16.3% | 46.9% | 36.8% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | --- | 0.0 | OUT | 14.5% | 31.0% | 54.5% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 13.3% | 29.5% | 57.2% |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 6.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 12.7% | 36.5% | 50.7% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 11.9% | 35.0% | 53.1% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 65.8% | 22.8% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 33.6% | 55.0% |
| Luther Burden III | WR | 10.3 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 39.4% | 49.2% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 11.1% | 36.6% | 52.3% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | 11.0% | 35.9% | 53.1% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.8 | 17.3 | BOOM | 10.7% | 38.1% | 51.2% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 8.7% | 31.2% | 60.1% |
Win Probability
Floor: -7.9 pts | Median: +31.8 pts | Ceiling: +70.6 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Nick Chubb | QUESTIONABLE | 6.9 | Christian McCaffrey | 25.3 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 89.6 | 84.9% | +31.4 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 104.4 | 71.0% | +16.9 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 19.0 | 4.4-28.2 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 16.1 | 4.6-24.8 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 11.5 | 2.5-24.2 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 28.1 | 5.6-29.8 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 7.4 | 7.1-28.2 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.3 | 4.1-25.7 | ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 7.8 | 2.6-17.1 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.0-17.2 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 14.0 | 4.6-16.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 19.3 | 6.4-28.1 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 6.7 | 2.0-19.9 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.7-16.6 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 52% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.9-25.7 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 0.7-18.1 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.3-21.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 27% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.1 | 9.8-31.5 | ↑15+: 69% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.6-15.7 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.8 | 0.4-16.9 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.9 | 4.2-22.9 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.5-18.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.2 | 2.1-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.6-18.6 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-20.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 59% | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 8.9 | 3.3-16.7 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.6-26.9 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.5-35.2 | ↑15+: 72% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.2-20.6 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.2-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 48% | |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.6-19.9 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-16.1 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 47% | |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 31% @ 22.1 | 40% @ 11.0 | 29% @ 3.9 | 12.3 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
Week 14 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9-4 | 1739.9 | 1550.1 | +189.8 | 101.9 vs 100.1 | W2 | 99.9% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8-5 | 1633.8 | 1624.2 | +9.6 | 147.3 vs 95.7 | L1 | 81.5% |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 8-5 | 1429.7 | 1468.7 | -39.1 | 75.6 vs 127.2 | W1 | 48.3% |
| 4 | Valued Customers ← | 7-6 | 1683.4 | 1445.6 | +237.8 | 127.2 vs 75.6 | W3 | 59.8% |
| 5 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-6 | 1623.6 | 1620.4 | +3.2 | 95.7 vs 147.3 | L1 | 35.3% |
| 6 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-6 | 1612.5 | 1532.4 | +80.1 | 100.1 vs 101.9 | W4 | 30.9% |
| 7 | Wookie of the Year | 7-6 | 1596.3 | 1602.5 | -6.2 | 118.0 vs 84.9 | W1 | 39.3% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-7 | 1536.1 | 1662.1 | -126.1 | 103.3 vs 106.8 | L1 | 4.4% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-7 | 1464.2 | 1526.2 | -62.0 | 84.9 vs 118.0 | L3 | 0.5% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 5-8 | 1471.5 | 1561.1 | -89.6 | 106.8 vs 103.3 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Auto DraftKings | 4-9 | 1560.1 | 1631.2 | -71.1 | 57.2 vs 104.6 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 12 | The Warsaw Pact | 4-9 | 1495.1 | 1621.7 | -126.6 | 104.6 vs 57.2 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 101.9 | @ | 100.1 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| 4th and pinches | 147.3 | @ | 95.7 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 75.6 | @ | 127.2 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 118.0 | @ | 84.9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
| Moms rules | 103.3 | @ | 106.8 | Smooth Roosters |
| Auto DraftKings | 57.2 | @ | 104.6 | The Warsaw Pact |
No urgent adds needed. Playoffs Week 16-17 approaching. Hold high-ceiling players. Hampton return is encouraging for playoff push.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | +3.5 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_049 (2025-11-30)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -19.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +11.8 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 9.5 | 19.0 | +9.5 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +7.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Emanuel Wilson | 5.6 | 8.9 | 1.4 | -7.5 |
| Our Team | TE | Evan Engram | 8.1 | 7.5 | 13.9 | +6.4 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Keenan Allen | 12.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | -2.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -1.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 17.2 | 20.0 | 19.6 | -0.4 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 8.5 | 8.4 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.